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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.41 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP