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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 27-L.Fournette right guard to CIN 1 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model