Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 99

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(3:37) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 43, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -4.22 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.00 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 99, worth -6.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model