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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model