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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.23 EP