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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Thursday 2019-10-17 · 20:20 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

KC
60.4%
DEN
39.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.278 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

KC

Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Kendall Fuller CB Out Thumb
Chris Jones DT Out Groin
Andrew Wylie G Out Ankle
Sammy Watkins WR Out Hamstring
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Not Injury Related

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
DEN 6

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:12 TD DEN (9:12) 28-R.Freeman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 04:19 TD KC (4:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:04 FG KC (1:04) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 08:04 FG KC (8:04) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – DEN 6
  • Q2 07:17 TD KC (7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – DEN 6
  • Q3 04:30 TD KC (4:30) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – DEN 6
  • Q4 05:08 FG KC (5:08) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 30 – DEN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (1:04) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman sacked at DEN 38 for -7 yards (23-A.Watts).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (10:00) 15-P.Mahomes up the middle to DEN 3 for 2 yards (95-D.Wolfe). KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.23 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (8:04) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 82%

    (3:09) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:11) 6-C.Wadman punts 19 yards to KC 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 27 for 4 yards (24-J.Lucas; 42-A.Sherman).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:11) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 13. 84-D.Thomas to KC 14 for 1 yard (26-I.Yiadom).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 15 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann). Penalty on DEN-97-J.Attaochu, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to KC 29, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (43-J.Jones). PENALTY on KC-92-T.Kpassagnon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 37.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:44) 6-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to KC 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas to KC 35 for 5 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:44) 30-P.Lindsay left end pushed ob at DEN 37 for 3 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:14) 6-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to KC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to DEN 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 35 for 1 yard (13-B.Pringle).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Hamilton (27-R.Fenton).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 89%

    (5:08) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:26) 6-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to KC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:17) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 1 yard (13-B.Pringle).