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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 27

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model