Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Denver Broncos 6

(13:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 27 for 4 yards (24-J.Lucas; 42-A.Sherman).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model