Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 15 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann). Penalty on DEN-97-J.Attaochu, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model