Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 73

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(3:44) 6-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to KC 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas to KC 35 for 5 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model