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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model