4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 49

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Hamilton (27-R.Fenton).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model