Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 67

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(3:26) 6-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to KC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model