Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 2-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to DET 22, Center-58-A.Cutting. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 6 yards (31-A.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.83 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model