Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIN offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- MIN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- DET defense: -0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
MIN
DET
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:41 TD DET (7:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
- Q1 05:23 TD MIN (5:23) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play. He is Out. MIN 6 – DET 7
- Q1 00:17 TD DET (:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – DET 13
- Q2 12:44 TD MIN (12:44) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 81-O.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 14
- Q2 03:33 TD MIN (3:33) 33-D.Cook left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – DET 14
- Q2 00:06 TD DET (:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 21 – DET 20
- Q3 09:08 TD MIN (9:08) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 30-C.Ham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 21
- Q3 03:26 FG DET (3:26) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 28 – DET 24
- Q4 05:46 TD MIN (5:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 34 – DET 24
- Q4 03:10 TD DET (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 35 – DET 30
- Q4 02:00 TD MIN (2:00) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 41 – DET 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%
(12:46) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to MIN 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-82-L.Thomas.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 72%
(10:46) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DET 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:00) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 15 for 10 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.
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Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(7:40) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 21 for 9 yards (51-J.Tavai).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:35) 2-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to DET 22, Center-58-A.Cutting. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 6 yards (31-A.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 22.
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Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%
(3:26) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 84%
(12:56) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
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Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 55%
(8:58) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 41-J.McKissic (54-E.Kendricks).