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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 28

Detroit Lions 21 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model