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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.12 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP