4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 41

Detroit Lions 24 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 41-J.McKissic (54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model