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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DET 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP