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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 40

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP