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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Monday 2019-10-21 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -9.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NE
73.7%
NYJ
26.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.245 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.366 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.020 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.141 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NE 28
–
NYJ 17
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Josh Gordon WR Out Knee
Ryan Izzo TE Out Concussion
Matt LaCosse TE Out Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Foot
Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Hamstring
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Albert McClellan LB Out Concussion
Henry Anderson DE Doubtful Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Doubtful Ankle
Trenton Cannon RB Doubtful Foot
Christopher Herndon TE Doubtful Hamstring
Neville Hewitt LB Doubtful Neck
Kelechi Osemele G Doubtful Shoulder
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Shoulder
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Knee
Alex Lewis G Questionable Neck
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Groin
Darryl Roberts CB Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring
Brian Winters G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33
–
NYJ 0

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:17 TD NE (6:17) 26-S.Michel left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 03:53 FG NE (3:53) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 00:14 TD NE (:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-P.Dorsett for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:22 TD NE (9:22) 65-J.Eluemunor and 66-J.Ferentz reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – NYJ 0
  • Q3 07:45 SAF NE (7:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold Aborted. 55-R.Kalil FUMBLES at NYJ 0, touched at NYJ 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-14-S.Darnold, Illegal Bat, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. NE 26 – NYJ 0
  • Q4 12:36 TD NE (12:36) 52-E.Roberts and 65-J.Eluemunor reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 32 – NYJ 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (3:53) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-B.Watson to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (3:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NE 46, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (8:34) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 20 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (2:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (12:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYJ 41 for 22 yards (45-R.Miles; 4-L.Edwards).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (9:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 37%

    (6:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-15-J.Bellamy.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:03) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NYJ 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at NYJ 29. 18-M.Slater to NYJ 29 for no gain (10-B.Berrios).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 30 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.21 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (2:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 18 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-39-J.Richards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.