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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 87

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.50 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 87, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model