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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 33

New England Patriots 33 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP