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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 48

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-15-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.32 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model