4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 35

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-B.Watson to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model