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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model