Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV on 8 more days rest than GB
- LV offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- LV defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- GB offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
OAK
GB
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:25 FG LV (12:25) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – GB 0
- Q1 09:47 TD GB (9:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – GB 6
- Q2 11:38 TD LV (11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – GB 7
- Q2 03:30 TD GB (3:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – GB 13
- Q2 00:20 TD GB (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. OAK 10 – GB 20
- Q3 12:09 TD GB (12:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – GB 27
- Q3 06:45 TD LV (6:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – GB 28
- Q3 02:12 TD GB (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – GB 34
- Q4 06:39 TD GB (6:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – GB 41
- Q4 01:37 TD LV (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 23 – GB 42
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%
(12:25) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(8:17) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to GB 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(5:08) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LV 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(11:15) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (93-B.Goodson, 23-J.Alexander).
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Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(9:39) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 37, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 43 for 20 yards (30-J.Williams). PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 48.
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Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(4:43) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:24) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 32 yards (88-E.Baylis).