4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

OAK
39.4%
GB
60.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV on 8 more days rest than GB
  • LV offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 23
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

OAK

Arden Key DE Out Knee
Tyrell Williams WR Out Foot
Trenton Brown T Doubtful Calf
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Ankle
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Knee

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Toe
Darnell Savage S Out Ankle
Geronimo Allison WR Doubtful Concussion
Robert Tonyan TE Doubtful Hip
Tony Brown CB Questionable Hamstring
Kenny Clark DT Questionable Calf
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 24
GB 42

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:25 FG LV (12:25) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 09:47 TD GB (9:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 11:38 TD LV (11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – GB 7
  • Q2 03:30 TD GB (3:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – GB 13
  • Q2 00:20 TD GB (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. OAK 10 – GB 20
  • Q3 12:09 TD GB (12:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – GB 27
  • Q3 06:45 TD LV (6:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – GB 28
  • Q3 02:12 TD GB (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – GB 34
  • Q4 06:39 TD GB (6:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – GB 41
  • Q4 01:37 TD LV (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 23 – GB 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (12:25) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:17) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to GB 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:08) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LV 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (11:15) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (93-B.Goodson, 23-J.Alexander).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:39) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 37, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 43 for 20 yards (30-J.Williams). PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 48.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:43) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:24) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 32 yards (88-E.Baylis).