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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (93-B.Goodson, 23-J.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.93 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model