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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Green Bay Packers 42

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model