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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 42 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 32 yards (88-E.Baylis).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model