Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(8:17) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to GB 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.79 EP
50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model