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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson up the middle to SF 29 for -1 yards (77-J.Taylor, 98-R.Blair III).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model