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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

SF
63.2%
WAS
36.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.175 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
WAS 19
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SF

D.J. Jones DT Out Hamstring
Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Out Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Out Groin
Joe Staley T Out Fibula
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee

WAS

Deshazor Everett S Out Ankle
Josh Harvey-Clemons LB Out Hamstring
Wes Martin G Out Chest
Chris Thompson RB Out Toe
Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Josh Norman CB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 9
–
WAS 0

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 34 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q3 05:32 FG SF (5:32) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – WAS 0
  • Q4 09:06 FG SF (9:06) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 6 – WAS 0
  • Q4 00:27 FG SF (:27) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 9 – WAS 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (6:50) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:51) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to WAS 10, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 10 for no gain (31-R.Mostert, 33-T.Moore).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:09) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to SF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 80%

    (11:00) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 78%

    (4:06) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson up the middle to SF 29 for -1 yards (77-J.Taylor, 98-R.Blair III).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to WAS 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:31) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to SF 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 59%

    (12:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left intended for 18-D.Pettis INTERCEPTED by 30-T.Apke at WAS 14. 30-T.Apke pushed ob at WAS 47 for 33 yards (68-M.Person).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:18) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 23 for 17 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (5:32) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 62%

    (12:27) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 82-R.Dwelley to WAS 33 for 2 yards (53-J.Bostic).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:06) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:54) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 33 for 13 yards (13-K.Harmon).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:27) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.