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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to WAS 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model