Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 91

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(1:31) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to SF 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.03 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 91, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model