4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP