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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 82-R.Dwelley to WAS 33 for 2 yards (53-J.Bostic).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model