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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP