Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(6:54) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 33 for 13 yards (13-K.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model