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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model