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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 21

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model