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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to WAS 10, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 10 for no gain (31-R.Mostert, 33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model