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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model