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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 11

Denver Broncos 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model