DEN @ IND — 4th & Data

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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich

Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DEN

35.7%

IND

64.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DEN offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
IND offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
IND defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Joe Flacco (DEN): -0.034 EPA/dropback in prior starts
DEN on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20

–

IND 23

Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot

Will Parks S Out Hand

Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee

Justin Hollins LB Questionable Knee

IND

Carl Davis DT Out Hamstring

Tyquan Lewis DT Questionable Ankle

Parris Campbell WR Questionable Abdomen

Pierre Desir CB Questionable Hamstring

Jack Doyle TE Questionable Groin

Kenny Moore CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 13

–

IND 15

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 13:00 FG DEN (13:00) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 3 – IND 0
Q2 05:37 FG DEN (5:37) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 6 – IND 0
Q2 00:06 FG IND (:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 6 – IND 3
Q3 11:42 TD DEN (11:42) 28-R.Freeman up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – IND 3
Q3 06:09 FG IND (6:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 13 – IND 6
Q3 02:32 TD IND (2:32) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – IND 12
Q4 00:26 FG IND (:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 13 – IND 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 27

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%

(11:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP

p(convert) 47%

(9:19) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to IND 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(5:54) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 11 for 2 yards (46-L.Rhodes).
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

(13:00) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(11:18) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

(5:37) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 39%

(2:21) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 21 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(1:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 80-C.Rogers to IND 20 for 8 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

(6:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(5:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to IND 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

(14:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to IND 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter. PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8.
Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 97

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(11:44) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to DEN 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer to IND 45 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on DEN-15-J.Winfree, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 45.
Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(9:40) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to IND 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 18.
Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 23%

(5:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 82 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(3:51) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 38 for 14 yards (16-A.Dulin).
Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 39%

(1:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 33 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 66%

(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.