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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 21 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model