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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 59

Denver Broncos 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 80-C.Rogers to IND 20 for 8 yards (26-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.05 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model