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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 50

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model