4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 43

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP