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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model